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Climate change made recent heatwave in Barnwell & Allendale four times more likely

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The late June heatwave that sweltered Barnwell, Allendale and other regional counties in triple-digit heat was made four times more likely due to climate change, according to climate modeling reviewed by The People-Sentinel.

Historically, Barnwell and Allendale counties would experience 71–75 days per year with temperatures above 90°F on average, according to data from the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS). By 2050 — unless greenhouse gasses from fossil fuels are reduced — the NIHHIS projects that residents of Barnwell and Allendale counties will experience 123–128 days per year with temperatures above 90°F on average.

The heatwaves currently blanketing the United States and South Carolina have exacerbated public health issues, such as heat-related illnesses. On June 21, over 100 million Americans were under heat advisories.

Hunter Harris, left, works on a roof while his brother Joshua, right, hydrates himself. During last week's heatwave, Hunter had to stay home for two days due to heat exhaustion.
Hunter Harris, left, works on a roof while his brother Joshua, right, hydrates himself. During last week's heatwave, Hunter had to stay home for two …
Hunter Harris, a local roofer, typically manages the heat by taking frequent breaks, staying hydrated and wearing a wide brimmed hat, sunglasses and a wet bandana. But on June 24, while working on a roof with his brother Joshua, he began to feel dizzy and went home with heat exhaustion, an illness that can quickly lead to organ damage and heat stroke.

“I stayed home for two days,” Harris said. “It was like having a fever where your body is aching and you feel weak. Your body gets so hot.”

Across the United States, heat-related illnesses and deaths are on the rise, according to the Centers for Disease Control. During periods of extreme heat, children, elderly people, outdoor workers and poor people are at higher risk of contracting a heat related illness, the CDC warns.
Rural communities face additional challenges in dealing with the effects of extreme heat, according to Chris Uejio, associate professor of public health at Florida State University who studies the effects of extreme heat on the human body.

“In rural areas there’s a higher percentage of outdoor workers … who are not in air-conditioned spaces,” Uejio said, noting that rural areas have higher rates of heat-related illnesses as a result. “Combine that with your normal rural health challenges like being geographically distant from healthcare providers and it taking longer for EMS services to reach you.”

The above graph shows how the number of days with heat above 90°F has increased and will continue to increase through the end of the century. Warming patterns can be slowed by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.
The above graph shows how the number of days with heat above 90°F has increased and will continue to increase through the end of the century. …
In May 2024, the South Carolina office of the National Weather Service updated its criteria for heat advisories, making heat advisories and heat watches easier to declare. It attributed the change to “recent excessive heat episodes.”

In addition to making the heat wave four times more likely, climate change also extended the heat wave’s duration, according to meteorologist Shel Winkley.

Winkley is the weather and climate engagement specialist for Climate Central, a non-profit that uses meteorological and climate data to create real-time analysis of weather patterns and the extent to which they are influenced by climate change.

“It’s South Carolina, so it’s always hot, but this is a different kind of heat than what our parents and our grandparents and generations before us experienced, especially with the heat we saw last week,” Winkley said.

“That human caused carbon pollution, that's what made those temperatures even more excessive.”

An Allendale firefighter extinguishes a brushfire near a home in Allendale County during the recent heatwave.
An Allendale firefighter extinguishes a brushfire near a home in Allendale County during the recent heatwave.
With hotter days and hotter summers comes the increased risk of bushfires and wildfires; the number of wildfires in South Carolina is increasing, which the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters recently attributed to warmer, dryer conditions brought on by climate change. On June 24, the Allendale County Fire Department responded to a brushfire near several homes on the north side of the Town of Allendale.

“If we continue down the path that we’re on, springs will become shorter, summertime heat will come sooner and the heat will last longer,” Winkley said. “All of our seasons are starting to warm up.”

In addition to affecting outdoor workers, periods of extreme heat also affect crops and livestock. At Oakley Farms, a small family farm in Barnwell County, Rodney Oakley’s chickens stopped laying eggs. Heat stress prevents chickens’ from laying eggs, according to The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.

“It’s the animals that have some challenges when it comes to the temperature,” Oakley said. “It’s not just us, it’s a lot of our friends too that are having the same issue. It’s like the chickens went on strike.”

Elijah de Castro is a Report for America corps member who writes about rural communities like Allendale and Barnwell counties for The People-Sentinel. Your donation to match our RFA grant helps keep Elijah writing stories like this one; please consider making a tax-deductible gift of any amount today.